Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment

Abstract. Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These “banks” within applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, must carefully accounted for order differentiate nascent potentially illegal from legal banked emissions. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed quantify chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113) banks their We extend this model suite chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (hydrochlorofluorocarbon, HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, halon 1211 1301, CFC-114 CFC-115) along with CFC-11, CFC-113 fuller range ozone-depleting substance (ODS) by chemical type. show that if atmospheric lifetime prior assumptions accurate, most likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, total probably been higher reported. identify greatest climate-relevance, determined global warming weighting, largely concentrated CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, dominate weighted ozone depletion (ODP). Thus, uncertainties substantial whose emissions will contribute delay ozone-hole recovery left unrecovered.